When it was first said this summer that Khamzat Chimaev (11-0) and Nate Diaz (20-13) will fight in a five-round welterweight main event at UFC 279, it was exciting news. Now, the fight will happen on September 10 at Las Vegas’s T-Mobile Arena.
Diaz has been very vocal about wanting one more fight on his UFC contract. In the past, he has said that UFC president Dana White was “holding him hostage” because of disagreements about pay and opponents. All of that seems to have been forgotten, as the fight between Chimaev and Diaz gives Diaz the tough fight he’s been looking for.
When the Chimaev vs. Diaz odds were first posted by OKBet Sports Betting, they were very unfair, with “The Wolf” starting as a +1600 favorite and Diaz as a +800 underdog. A few days before the fight, Chimaev is now a -950 favorite, while Diaz is a +700 underdog.
Chimaev will be Diaz’s last opponent in the UFC before he might quit mixed martial arts for a lucrative boxing match with Jake Paul, which could be his swan song.
OKbet Sports Betting Odds: Khamzat Chimaev vs Nate Diaz
When we look at the OKBet sports betting odds for Chimaev vs. Diaz, our sports betting calculator tells us that Chimaev’s -950 odds mean he has a huge 90.48 percent chance of winning. With odds of +700, Diaz has a 12.5% chance to win. So, if you win a $10 bet on Chimaev, you only get $11.05, but if you win the same bet on Diaz, you get $80.
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OKBet Sports Betting Analysis odds for Khamzat Chimaev vs. Nate Diaz
In all five of Chimaev’s UFC fights, he has been the favorite, but not usually by this much. At UFC Fight Island 3, he was -1400 against Rhys McKee. The Chechen lived up to his reputation, blasting the Irishman with constant ground attacks and out-striking him 68-0 on his way to a first-round finish.
Since then, Chimaev has only gotten better. Most recently, he beat Gilbert Burns in a tough fight at UFC 273, which he went into as the -550 favorite and won by decision.
Diaz, who has been in the UFC for 15 years, is a +700 underdog going into the fight, which is by far the worst odds of his career. The southpaw’s last fight was against Leon Edwards at UFC 263. He was a +350 underdog, which was tied for the second-biggest of his career (the other was against Conor McGregor at UFC 196). After losing by decision to Edwards, the 37-year-old has now lost his last two fights.
Preview of Chimaev vs. Diaz: Khamzat Will Be at His Best
Chimaev’s last fight was at UFC 273 against Gilbert Burns. It was a show of pressure, wrestling, strength, and endurance. For the first time in his UFC career, his opponent pushed him past the second round and all the way to a decision, but Khamzat stood strong.
The 6-2 fighter switched stances, threw fluid combos, and used creative punches to win by decision against Burns, who was a top contender. Even when the Brazilian knocked him down, he got back up without getting scared, showing that he was ready to keep fighting.
Chimaev is very young for a fighter, and it’s rare to see someone with such well-honed mental and emotional skills and a devastating physical profile. The 28-year-old is going to be a real UFC star. After his battle with Burns, he should be at his mental and physical best, which will be bad news for Diaz, who is older and less fit.
How Does Diaz Go Out?
Diaz has had an exciting UFC career, but he has only won one fight in the last six years, so there are questions about his motivation and work ethic going into what is likely to be his last fight in the UFC.
Nate has always had a moody personality in the Octagon, just like his older brother Nick. The Nate we see at UFC 279 will depend on a roll of the dice. Will Diaz keep fighting with his long-range strikes and maybe even use his wrestling and jiu-jitsu skills, which aren’t as well known as they should be? Or will Stockton’s Own keep talking trash and making few things, maybe as a final “screw you” to Uncle Dana for the mess he made with the contract?
In the fifth round of their last fight, Diaz knocked Edwards out. Nate, who likes to put on a show, decided to point at Edwards instead of talking to him. Even though Chimaev is much stronger than Diaz, it will be interesting to see how Diaz acts during the fight.
Chimaev vs Diaz Betting Pick
Diaz is, in a very real way, being fed to The Wolf. When Chimaev picks his line and puts the heat on his opponents in the cage, he is like a freight train. There’s a good chance that Diaz, who just got off his heels, will be unable to handle this pressure almost right away.
Nate is smaller, weaker, and can’t hit or hold his own. Chimaev is a tough fighter who said he would “take care of Nate Diaz’s funeral with the UFC.” We’re more likely to believe him because we think he will beat Diaz quickly.